Meeting our Development Needs to 2050

DS.3 Meeting our Development Needs to 2050 A. Employment To meet the needs of South Warwickshire up to 2050, provision will be made for a minimum of 225 hectares of strategic and 321 hectares of non-strategic employment land: Stratford- on-Avon Warwick South Warwickshire Strategic Employment Land Need (gross) (2022-2045) - - 225 Existing Commitments 100 (205.13) 100 Strategic Allocations 57 121 178 Total supply 157ha 121ha 278ha (Balance against need) (+53ha) Stratford- on-Avon Warwick South Warwickshire Non-strategic Employment Land (industrial and office) Need (2021 – 2050) 199.9 121.2 321.1 Existing commitments 52.2 35.2 87.4 Non-strategic Allocations 158.6 99.6 258.2 Total supply 210.8ha 134.8ha 345.6ha 3 This relates to the 125ha advanced manufacturing site at Coventry Airport (117ha of which lies in Warwick District). The site benefits from full planning permission (see WDC refs: W/21/1370 and W/25/0265) and is allocated through policy COV .2. It also includes 71.8ha of strategic employment land at Coventry Gateway South and 16.3ha at Whitley South, which benefit from Outline Planning Permission (see WDC refs: W/18/0522 and W/16/0239) 11.73ha. at Whitley South also benefits from full planning permission (see WDC ref: W/25/0816). These sites are separate to the need within WMSESS Road Opportunity Area 8 (A46/M40) for 225ha. (Balance against need) (+10.9ha) (+13.6ha) (+24.5ha) B. Housing To meet the needs of South Warwickshire over the period 2025-2050, provision will be made for a minimum of 54,925 net additional homes: Stratford- on-Avon Warwick South Warwickshire Housing Requirement 2025-2050 27,800 27,125 54,925 Commitments4 3,825 6,149 9,974 Small Sites Windfall Allowance 3,630 1,826 5,456 Short-term Large Sites Windfall Allowance 500 600 1,100 Total Allocations 21,324 19,756 41,080 Total Supply 29,279 28,331 57,610 (Balance against requirement) (+1,479) (+1,206) (+2,685) In addition to the ‘bricks and mortar’ homes above, provision will be made for 129 Gypsy & Traveller pitches, 20 Travelling Showpeople plots and 35 Boat Dweller moorings: The Gypsy & Traveller requirement will be met through: Stratford- on-Avon Warwick South Warwickshire Pitch Requirement 99 30 129 Commitments5 1 12 13 Windfall allowance 19 0 19 Allocations 79 18 97 (Balance against need) 0 0 0 4 Homes with permission but not yet completed as 1st April 2025 5 Pitches with planning permission as at 1st April 2026 The Travelling Showpeople requirement will be met through: Stratford- on-Avon Warwick South Warwickshire Plot Requirement 14 6 20 Commitments 0 0 0 Windfall allowance 0 0 0 Allocations 8 6 20 (Balance against need) -6 0 -6 C. 5 Year Housing Land Supply Annual updates to the five-year deliverable supply of housing will be prepared for both districts, based on the following annual housing requirements: Stratford-on-Avon District 1,112 dwellings per annum from 2025/26 – 2049/50 Warwick District 1,085 dwellings per annum from 2025/26 – 2049/50 These calculations will include any past shortfall or oversupply from the plan period base date of 1st April 2025. A five-year supply of deliverable sites for Travellers will also be maintained by each district. Policy Justification ~ Employment 2.5.19 The strategic and non-strategic industrial employment land need for South Warwickshire has been identified within a suite of evidence documents prepared for the South Warwickshire Local Plan, including: • Housing & Economic Development Needs Assessment (HEDNA) (2022) • West Midlands Strategic Employment Sites Study (2024) • Coventry & Warwickshire HEDNA/WMSESS Alignment Paper (2024) • HEDNA - WMSESS Alignment Paper Addendum (2025) • South Warwickshire Employment Land Study Update (2026) 2.5.20 The West Midlands Strategic Sites Study (WMSESS) (2024) quantified the need for strategic sites across the West Midlands region. The WMSESS defines strategic sites as sites which are typically over 25 ha or above (or extensions to existing strategic sites of over 10ha.), can accommodate strategic sized industrial and logistics units of over 9,300 sqm in size, and benefit from strong accessibility to the Strategic Road Network. To be considered to be a strategic site, the majority of proposed employment floorspace should be located within units of over 9,300sqm in size. 2.5.21 The WMSESS identifies nine Road Opportunity Areas (ROA) across the region which could accommodate future growth to meet the residual strategic employment requirement. Those relevant to South Warwickshire are shown in Figure 13. Of particular note, the Study identified Road Opportunity Area 8, which covers the M40/A46 region. This ROA is situated entirely within South Warwickshire. In addition, two other ROAs were identified that partially extend into South Warwickshire. This includes Area 7, which covers Coventry, Rugby and the north of Warwick District. It also includes Area 9 which covers the M42/M5/A435 area principally in Redditch and Bromsgrove but partly extends into the north-west portion of Stratford-on-Avon District. The justification for not allocating strategic employment land in these locations is set out in the accompanying Growth Strategy Topic Paper. Figure 13: Road Opportunity Areas as identified within the WMSESS (2024) 2.5.22 The gross strategic site need for Road Opportunity Area 8 is 225ha, as set out in paragraph 6.58 of the South Warwickshire Employment Land Study Update (2026) which analysed the conclusion of the WMSESS (2024). As this ROA is situated entirely within South Warwickshire, the SWLP fully accommodates this need. 2.5.23 The gross ROA 8 strategic site requirement includes 100ha of existing supply from the Stratford Core Strategy allocated site in Gaydon (Proposal GLH) which is allocated for general industrial development. Accounting for this existing 100ha of supply, left a residual requirement of approximately 75-125ha to be met through the SWLP. The SWLP plans for the upper end of this requirement, as although the WMSESS modelled the 2022-45 period, by planning for the upper end of the requirement it is considered that South Warwickshire’s needs up to 2050 will be met. The site selection process for strategic employment land is set out within the Growth Topic Paper. 2.5.24 As such, Proposal GAY .1 carries forward this 100ha allocation for strategic employment purposes at Gaydon adding an additional 6ha and removing the previous occupier restriction from the allocation. Therefore, the total allocation at GAY .1 - Land to the North of B4100 at Gaydon is 106ha, predominantly for large-scale B2 industrial uses (units over 9,300sqm), with up to 50% of floorspace permitted to be used for advanced- manufacturing related B8 use class units. As such, only 6ha of the proposed allocation counts towards the residual strategic employment requirement. A further 51ha to the south of the existing Jaguar Land Rover site at Gaydon is allocated to allow the further expansion of the automotive sector at this key location in South Warwickshire. Proposal BIT.3 allocates 121ha of land for strategic employment land within use classes B2 and B8 on the northern side of the M40, between the current Junctions 13 and 14. Together these two sites will meet South Warwickshire’s need for strategic employment land, delivering 278ha of strategic employment land, in excess of the identified gross need of 225ha. 2.5.25 In addition, within ROA7 the strategic site commitment of employment land at the ex-Coventry Airport site is allocated for strategic employment uses within the SWLP . This 125ha site (117ha of which is in South Warwickshire) has already been accounted for within the strategic site supply for ROA7 of the West Midlands Strategic Employment Sites Study under its extant planning consent for the development of a Gigafactory – a large-scale battery manufacturing facility (WDC Planning Ref: W/21/1370 and W/25/0265). Whilst delivery of a gigafactory remains the primary objective for the site, it is considered appropriate to broaden the scope of potential uses on site to include other advanced manufacturing activities to afford sufficient flexibility. Full details of this site allocation are included within the separate Proposal COV .2. 2.5.26 Further to the Coventry Airport site, an additional 71.8ha at the Gateway south and 16.3ha at Whitley south sites, south of Coventry is allocated for strategic employment uses (Use Class B2 andB8). These two sites have also already been accounted for within ROA7s strategic site supply within the WMSESS (2024). The HEDNA - WMSESS Alignment Paper Addendum (2025) clarifies that the site area contributing to the strategic employment supply at Gateway South should exclude 90ha dedicated to a Country Park. Gateway South and Whitley South were both allocated as part of a Sub-Regional Employment Allocation within the Warwick District Local Plan (2011-2029). Both sites also benefit from extant Outline Planning Permission. 11ha at Whitley South has also been granted full planning permission. 2.5.27 There is no further need for additional allocations in South Warwickshire in Area 7, as the remaining need as set out in the WMSESS is being addressed in other local authorities. 2.5.28 No sites are proposed for allocation to meet the strategic site need of Road Opportunity Area 9 within the SWLP , as the Districts of Redditch and Bromsgrove - of who Area 9 primarily relates to - have not expressed a desire for Stratford-on-Avon District to accommodate this strategic employment need within our boundaries. 2.5.29 For non-strategic employment needs, the South Warwickshire Employment Land Study Update set out the supply/demand balance for office and local industrial land. This is amalgamated into a single figure for office and local industrial land to allow flexibility to bring forwards office floorspace alongside other forms of employment development. Overall, the evidence identifies a need for just over 320ha (gross) and 233.7ha (net) of non-strategic employment land over the period 2021-2050. This need will be met through a combination of existing employment land commitments and allocations across both districts, as set out in Policies DS.2 and DS.5. The sites identified for allocation for non-strategic employment land will deliver a headroom of approximately 10.48% above identified net need across South Warwickshire. 2.5.30 A 2025 Homes-Jobs Alignment Paper prepared for the authorities in the Coventry and Warwickshire HMA considered the relationship between jobs and homes by comparing potential jobs growth with the growth in labour supply and the likely number of jobs supported by the planned housing delivery. It concluded that there was a broad alignment between homes and jobs in the HMA, and therefore there was no need to plan for a level of housing provision above Local Housing Need. A 2026 update focusing on Homes and Jobs alignment in South Warwickshire reached the same conclusion. Policy Justification ~ Housing 2.5.31 The Local Housing Need for South Warwickshire is 2,197 dwellings per annum. This was calculated in May 2025 using the Government’s standard method. The Local Housing Need equates to the requirement for each authority over the plan period and are set out in the policy above. 2.5.32 The Councils will publish annual updates of deliverable sites sufficient to demonstrate a 5-year supply of housing against the above annual requirements. Should the circumstances arise where one Council is unable to demonstrate a 5YHLS, this will not affect the land supply calculation result in the other Council. Similarly for the Housing Delivery Test, the two areas will continue to be measured separately, with any policy consequences applying to the individual District where the result is generated. 2.5.33 Dwellings with an existing planning permission at 1st April 2025 are counted as commitments. As these dwellings are built, completions will be subtracted from the overall requirement for the plan period. 2.5.34 A small sites windfall allowance has been added for each Council. This reflects past trends of windfall completions on sites of 1-9 dwellings. The windfall allowance has been applied from year 4 of the plan period onwards to reflect the anticipated time it will take for such sites to deliver new dwellings. The Growth Strategy Topic Paper explains the background to the windfall allowance. 2.5.35 The total number of dwellings to be allocated refers to the totals from the sites identified in policies DS.2 (supported by detailed site-specific policies in Chapter 8) and DS.5, which also include allocations from previous Development Plans that have been rolled forward. These are summarised in the Housing Trajectories for each authority in Figures 14 and 15 below whilst Figures 16 and 17 projected completions against the requirement. 2.5.36 As can be seen, the total identified supply of housing indicates a headroom of 5.3% for Stratford District and 4.4% for Warwick District, equating to an overall headroom of 4.9% in South Warwickshire overall. The SWLP includes separate housing trajectories for the two districts with each district continuing to calculate its own separate 5YHLS. This is considered appropriate given that each district remains a sovereign local planning authority with its own planning committee. As such, additional supply (i.e. headroom) in one district will not contribute towards housing supply in the other district. 2.5.37 An element of contingency is necessary to provide a degree of flexibility above the housing requirement to allow for the potential non-delivery of some sites and to assist the Councils with being able to demonstrate a 5-year housing land supply. In addition to the known commitments at 1st April 2025 and SWLP allocations, both Councils currently have a large number of planning applications for residential-led development pending consideration which, if approved, would yield a significant number of dwellings that could be added to the housing trajectories in due course. It is therefore anticipated that the number of committed dwellings in both Councils will increase substantially in the early part of the plan period, providing additional headroom and flexibility towards achieving a 5-year housing land supply. In recognition of this likely source of additional supply, a modest short-term large sites windfall allowance has been included for both Councils, with the expectation that this delivery will occur in the early part of the plan period. Policy Justification ~ Gypsy & Travellers, Travelling Showpeople and Boat Dwellers 2.5.37 The requirement for Gypsies & Travellers, Travelling Showpeople and Boat Dwellers is set out in the 2026 South Warwickshire Gypsy and Traveller Accommodation Needs Assessment (GTANA). The GTANA covers the period 2025-2050. As with the housing requirement, each Council has separate requirements and will maintain a separate five-year supply of deliverable traveller sites. 2.5.38 A windfall allowance of two traveller pitches per annum is included for Stratford- on-Avon District as there is consistent evidence of unidentified sites coming forward through the development management process. As per general housing, the windfall allowance has been applied from year 4 of the plan period onwards to reflect the anticipated time it will take for such sites to deliver new authorised pitches. It is assumed that the shortfall of 6 Travelling Showpeople plots within Stratford-on-Avon District will be met by means of windfall applications. Figure 14: Stratford-on-Avon Housing Trajectory 2025-2050 Ref Site Indicative Capacity 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/29 2029/30 2030/31 2031/32 2032/33 2033/34 2034/35 2035/36 2036/37 2037/38 2038/39 2039/40 2040/41 2041/42 2042/43 2043/44 2044/45 2045/46 2046/47 2047/48 2048/49 2049/50 Dwellings with planning permission at 1st April 2025 3825 685 440 236 412 474 534 447 252 190 105 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Small sites windfall allowance 3630 0 0 0 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 Short-term large sites windfall allowance 500 0 0 0 100 100 100 100 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Allocations New Communities LMA Long Marston Airfield 4500 0 0 0 0 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 300 300 300 300 300 Strategic Growth Locations BID.1 Bidford-on-Avon - Land to North and East 2225 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 120 124 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 100 51 HEN Henley-in-Arden 2084 0 0 0 0 40 80 120 175 175 175 176 150 150 160 168 135 130 110 83 50 7 0 0 0 0 SOU.1 Southam – Land to East 3122 0 0 0 25 100 190 215 337 335 320 320 300 280 209 160 160 90 60 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 STR.1 Stratford – Land to North 777 0 0 0 0 24 30 44 80 130 145 145 119 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 STR.2 Stratford – Land to South-east 2727 0 0 0 0 0 30 90 140 170 170 170 170 170 170 215 260 240 198 119 90 90 90 90 55 0 STR.3 Stratford – Land to West 687 0 0 10 40 80 115 95 95 95 95 62 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 WEL.1 Wellesbourne North 1331 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 80 120 150 150 150 150 150 140 140 101 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Local Growth Locations Allocations 3400 0 0 73 310 319 572 542 524 290 239 208 162 116 45 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NDP Allocations (carried forward) 471 0 0 8 43 36 30 56 23 50 60 45 45 45 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Totals Cumulative Stratford housing requirement 27,800 1112 2224 3336 4448 5560 6672 7784 8896 10008 11120 12232 13344 14456 15568 16680 17792 18904 20016 21128 22240 23352 24464 25576 26688 27800 Projected annual completions 29,279 685 440 327 1095 1338 1846 1924 1991 1860 1914 1865 1661 1536 1329 1258 1260 1165 1034 788 705 712 705 705 620 516 Projected cumulative completions 29,279 685 1125 1452 2547 3885 5731 7655 9646 11506 13420 15285 16946 18482 19811 21069 22329 23494 24528 25316 26021 26733 27438 28143 28763 29279 Figure 15: Warwick Housing Trajectory 2025-2050 Ref Site Indicative Capacity 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/29 2029/30 2030/31 2031/32 2032/33 2033/34 2034/35 2035/36 2036/37 2037/38 2038/39 2039/40 2040/41 2041/42 2042/43 2043/44 2044/45 2045/46 2046/47 2047/48 2048/49 2049/50 Dwellings with planning permission at 1st April 2025 6149 635 761 768 641 512 371 362 267 245 245 253 210 210 225 225 220 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Small Sites windfall allowance 1826 0 0 0 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 Short-term large sites windfall allowance 600 0 0 0 80 80 80 80 80 100 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Allocations New Communities HAT Hatton 4,000 0 0 0 0 15 50 50 50 105 133 156 187 187 219 240 262 262 262 262 262 262 262 262 262 250 Strategic Growth Locations BIT.1 Bishop’s Tachbrook - Land to West 655 0 0 0 0 0 40 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 55 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 BIT.3 Bishop’s Tachbrook - Land North West 1720 0 0 0 25 50 70 130 139 130 170 170 170 166 140 120 120 80 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 COV.1 South of Coventry 4015 0 0 0 0 40 55 144 175 189 250 270 370 434 430 389 270 232 100 140 126 80 80 80 90 71 COV.3 South of Coventry - Kings Hill6 1500 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50 100 210 210 210 210 210 210 90 0 KEN.1 Kenilworth - Land to South 776 0 0 0 0 40 90 140 140 106 100 90 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LEA.1 Leamington Spa - Land to North (Blackdown) 1043 0 0 0 0 0 55 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 60 57 71 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LEA.2 Leamington Spa - Land to North (Milverton) 974 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 80 95 100 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 60 39 0 0 0 0 0 LEA.3 Leamington Spa - Land to East (Lillington) 1455 0 0 0 0 0 40 130 140 140 140 140 140 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 25 0 0 0 0 0 WAR.1 Warwick - Land to West 850 0 0 0 0 0 0 45 50 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 50 45 0 0 0 0 Local Growth Locations Allocations 1461 0 0 18 47 401 422 307 132 106 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Warwick Local Plan Allocations (carried forward) 1307 0 0 50 115 50 249 230 190 223 100 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Totals Cumulative Warwick housing requirement (1,085 dpa) 27,125 1085 2170 3255 4340 5425 6510 7595 8680 9765 10850 11935 13020 14105 15190 16275 17360 18445 19530 20615 21700 22785 23870 24955 26040 27125 Projected annual completions 28,331 635 761 836 991 1271 1605 1881 1676 1747 1684 1602 1540 1480 1472 1337 1282 1048 915 895 795 680 635 635 525 404 Projected cumulative completions 28,331 635 1396 2231 3222 4493 6098 7979 9655 11402 13086 14688 16228 17708 19180 20517 21799 22847 23762 24657 25452 26132 26767 27402 27927 28331 6 Up to 4,000 dwellings are allocated at Kings Hill as per policy COV .3, with 2,500 dwellings currently benefiting from planning permission. These consented dwellings are shown within the row “Dwellings with planning permission at 1st April 2025” Figure 16: Stratford-on-Avon Annua