2 Background & Context

2 Background & Context Overview of Three Rivers District 2.1 Three Rivers is situated to the southwestern tip of Hertfordshire adjoining Greater London to the south. It covers an area of approximately 88 square kilometres. To the north of the district is the borough of Dacorum and St Albans City & District. Buckinghamshire is situated to the west of the district. To the east of Three Rivers is the borough of Watford and district of Hertsmere. The London Boroughs of Harrow and Hillingdon adjoin the southern boundary of the district. 2.2 Three Rivers is a mixture of beautiful countryside, villages and small towns with main settlements at Rickmansworth, Croxley Green, South Oxhey, Abbots Langley and Chorleywood. The development of Rickmansworth, Croxley Green and Chorleywood areas was close ly related to the development of the London Underground Metropolitan Line railway stations, while South Oxhey was developed after the Second World War to alleviate housing pressures in London. Other settlements such as Abbots Langley have developed more gradually. Population 2.3 The population of Three Rivers has increased from 87,300 in 2011 to 93,800 in 20212 (an increase of 7.4%). The Office for National Statistics (ONS) produces mid -year population estimates of the district, estimating the mid-2025 population as 95,090. It is estimated that the population is predicted to grow continuously to 98,919 by 20413. 2.4 The demographic data by ONS also demonstrates a trend of an aging population in the district, with a 25% increase expected in the age category 65 and over by 20414. 2.5 Residents in Three Rivers are largely healthy and e xperience above average life expectancy. The workforce is generally well-educated, highly skilled and well paid. Deprivation 2.6 The English Indices of Deprivation (2025) provides a measure of deprivation based on factors such as income, employment, health, education, barriers to housing and services, living environment, and crime. The Index ranks Three Rivers amongst the 10% least deprived districts and boroughs in England5. 2.7 However, despite the district’s relative affluence, there is variation across the area and pockets of deprivation exist. Wards such as Moor Park and Eastbury and Chorleywood North and Sarratt feature relatively low deprivation, while wards such 2 ONS. (2022). How the population changed in Three Rivers: Census 2021. https://www.ons.gov.uk/visualisations/censuspopulationchange/E07000102/ 3 ONS. (2025). Subnational population projections for England: 2022-based. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/s ubnationalpopulationprojectionsforengland/2022based 4 ONS. (2025). Projected population age structure by single year of age and sex for Three Rivers, 2022 to 2047. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/s ubnationalpopulationprojectionsforengland/2022based 5 MHCLG. (2025). English Indices of Deprivation 2025: Statistical Release. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/english-indices-of-deprivation-2025/english-indices-of-deprivation-2025- statistical-release#local-authority-district-analysis as South Oxhey and Maple Cross feature comparatively high deprivation with part of the South Oxhey ward identified as within the 20% most deprived neighbourhoods in England. 2.8 The differences in deprivation across the district highlight inequalities in terms of access to services, housing, employment, education, skills, training and health. Employment and Economy 2.9 Three Rivers has a mixed economy of business and industry and is attractive to small businesses, often relocating from London. 2.10 The South West Hertfordshire Economic Study Update (2024) indicates that Three Rivers experienced the strongest employment growth rates in South West Hertfordshire between 2016 and 2021, with growth of 1.6% (per annum), higher than the average percentage increase (0.7% per annum) across the rest of the UK. 2.11 Furthermore, the study indicates that Three Rivers’ economy is largely based on the IT sector and professional services. Although there is also a high concentration of knowledge-based industries, the film and TV sector is noted as a particular strength of the district, particularly due to the Warner Bros. Studios in Leavesden. 2.12 A number of national and multinational corporat ions have set up head or regional offices within Three Rivers (e.g. Nissan, Renault UK, Skanska, ASOS, Imagination technologies, GE Money, Schleich, Mane Contract). These are complemented by a wide variety of small and medium sized businesses. The Warner Bros. Film Studios in Leavesden is an internationally acclaimed site for creative industry, with the Harry Potter Studio Tour attracting 6,000 visitors per day. 2.13 As reflected in the South West Herts Economic Study, approximately 67% of working residents in Three Rivers work within the district. However, it must be noted that the 2021 census was undertaken in early 2021 when a large proportion of people were working from home due to the Covid pandemic . Notwithstanding this, t he result demonstrates the increase in homeworking/remote working and the importance of providing a balance of new homes and jobs in the district. 2.14 Within Three Rivers, about 79.8% of people aged 16-64 were economically active in 2023, compared to 80.4% in Hertfordshire and 79% in England6. 2.15 There is predicted to be significant growth in demand for studio space over the next 15 years at Warner Bros Film Studios, and this is a key asset to the future growth of creative industries in the area. There is a shortage of land suitable for small/medium scale industrial uses, and there is a need to protect existing office space in the district despite high vacancy levels across the wider South West Hertfordshire functional economic market area (FEMA). 6 ONS. (2024). Economic inactivity rate (Great Britain). https://www.ons.gov.uk/explore-local- statistics/indicators/economic-inactivity-rate 2.16 Securing increased business investment in the area will be necessary to maintain the mixed economy of Three Rivers, and to provide continued opportunities for local employment. 2.17 In terms of provision for retail and services, Rickmansworth is the principal town in the district, but no one town dominates. Many Three Rivers residents also rely on towns in neighbouring areas for work, shopping and leisure purposes including parts of north London, Watford, Hemel Hempstead and St Albans. The district remains fairly ‘self-sufficient’ in a number of areas including the provision of everyday local facilities, services and recreation, however, the dispersed settlement pattern across the district raises issues for the provision of some higher order services, and for the maintenance of the viability of shops and services in the villages and small towns as these compete with much larger centres in adjoining districts and boroughs. Infrastructure 2.18 Pressure on existing infrastructure and additional demands caused by planned growth must be addressed to maintain and enhance the district’s prosperity and quality of life. Many people are attracted to Three Rivers by the quality of life and environment. This places a high demand on school places and access to amenities, such as open spaces. The local and strategic road networks, rail network and local facilities in smaller settlements are also facing increasing pressure. Transport and Accessibility 2.19 The district is on the outer fringe of London and benefits from excellent road and rail connections (although primarily in and out of the district). Heathrow and Luton airports are in close proximity and Gatwick and Stansted are approximately an hour’s drive away. The M1 and M25 motorways also run through the district. 2.20 Demand for rail services remains high and is increasing. The West Coast Main Line, the Chiltern Line and the London Underground Metropolitan Line railways all serve the district, providing links to London and the north, as well as more local connections. Access to, and parking at stations are under pressure and will likely continue to increase. 2.21 Bus networks provide an important service in the district, particularly for more rural areas. However, these routes are often uneconomic to operate and networks in the district are shrinking. These services require support to maintain access to essential s ervices for people without access to a car. Limited services between Abbots Langley and Watford General Hospital, and South Oxhey and Watford General Hospital have been identified as an issue for local communities. 2.22 Car ownership is relatively high in the district. A round 87.5% of households ha d at least one car or van at the 2021 census 7, which is higher compared with Hertfordshire’s (84.4%) and England ’s (76.5%) averages. I n the rural areas of the 7 ONS. (2025). Number of Cars or Vans – Census 2021. https://www.ons.gov.uk/census/maps/choropleth/housing/number-of-cars-or-vans/number-of-cars-3a/no-cars-or- vans-in-household district, car ownership levels are even higher, with 90.6% of households in Chorleywood and 91.8% in Croxley North & Sarratt owning a car. 2.23 Traffic levels in Three Rivers are forecast to grow 15.6% in the period 2017- 2031, and there are existing local congestion problems. Despite high car ownership levels, there are still households without access to a car or van, and this can have significant impacts on access to services, particularly for households in rural areas. Dependency on the car also has social, economic and environmental consequences. There is therefore a need to enable and promote more sustainable modes of transport to improve tr avel options, increase access to services, reduce the environmental impacts of travel and promote the sustainability of the district. Housing 2.24 Housing is a key challenge for the district. Three Rivers has a relatively high proportion of detached and semi -detached housing, and a relatively low proportion of flats when compared to the rest of Hertfordshire and the national average. The quality of housing stock in Three Rivers is generally good, although there are areas such as South Oxhey where some of the housing stock has exhibited problems of poor thermal insulation, poor space and layout standards, and unsatisfactory access. Recent regeneration and redevelopment of housing within South Oxhey is helping to address these issues. 2.25 Approximately 71% of households in Three Rivers are owner occupied. This is a higher proportion than the Hertfordshire (65%) and national (65%) averages8. About 3.9% of houses were recorded as being vacant at the time of the Census in 20219. 2.26 There is a high demand for housing in the district, particularly from people moving out of London and this is illustrated by the high house prices. Three Rivers house prices are amongst the highest in the country . Average house prices in Three Rivers in October 2025 were £594,00010. The general trend has been towards worsening affordability ratios, and lower quartile house prices were 12.24 times higher than lower quartile incomes in September 2024. 2.27 The South West Hertfordshire Local Housing Needs Assessment (2024) identifies a notable need for affordable housing and confirms that this is an important and pressing issue in the district and wider South West Hertfordshire. A lack of affordable housing can lead to people moving out of the district and to recruitment problems for local businesses and public sector organisations. Where firms have difficulty attracting staff to ‘high cost’ regions, wages may be higher, but this risks the competitiveness of firms in the area. There is a need to provide housing to meet local needs, and there is a particular need to provide affordable housing in the district. 8 ONS. (2025). Tenure of Household. https://www.ons.gov.uk/census/maps/choropleth/housing?lad=E07000102 9 ONS. (2023). Number of Vacant and Second Homes England and Wales: Census 2021. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/housing/bulletins/numberofvacantandsecondhomesengl andandwales/census2021#:~:text=Of%20all%20dwellings%2C%20it%20was,England%20and%20120%2C450% 20in%20Wales. 10 https://www.ons.gov.uk/visualisations/housingpriceslocal/E07000102/ Natural Environment 2.28 As well as having intrinsic value, the environment of Three Rivers is significant in influencing the character of the district and supporting the quality of life of local communities. 2.29 Over three quarters (76%) of the district is designated as Green Belt, with Green Belt boundaries generally closely related to the urban areas of the small and medium sized settlements which are distributed fairly evenly across the district. 2.30 The landscape of Three Rivers is a complex mix of rural and urban areas, woodlands, wildlife habitats, farmland, water features and other land forms. The landscape has been heavily altered by human activity so many distinctive features such as field boundaries are of historical interest as well as visual and ecological merit. 2.31 Approximately 546ha of the Chilterns National Landscape is situated within Three Rivers, which is sparsely populated. However, development within and near to the National Landscape needs to be suitably managed to recognise the need to conserve and enhance the natural beauty of the landscape. 2.32 Natural habitats and biodiversity are also an integral part of the character of Three Rivers and contribute to the high quality of life in the area. There are five Sites of Special Scientific Interest, nine Local Nature Reserves, and 144 Local Wildlife Sites within the district. These assets cover a variety of wildlife species in a diverse range of habitats. 2.33 The three rivers that give the district its name (namely the Rivers Colne, Gade and Chess) are important resources for the district in terms of landscape, biodiversity and access to open space, and form important parts of the district’s Green and Blue Infrastructure network. 2.34 In May 2019, Three Rivers District Council declared a climate emergency in recognition of the threat climate change poses to the planet and to humanity. As part of this, the council has committed to use all practical means to reduce the impact of council services on the environment, to cut carbon emissions and to reduce impacts on the environment. In addition to calling on the Government to provide support and resources, the Local Plan is a key opportunity to influence the achievement of these objectives. Historic Environment 2.35 The district has a rich and varied heritage with 352 listed buildings, many locally important buildings, 22 Conservation Areas, three Scheduled Ancient Monuments, two Registered Parks and Gardens, as well as 19 Sites of Archaeological Interest. All these heritage assets contribute to the character and quality of the district, and the conservation of these assets is a priority to protect local character and maintain the attractiveness of the district. Relationship with the Community Strategy 2.36 There are several strategies and plans which affect the district in terms of priorities and actions. The Local Plan draws on strategies and plans that have implications for the development and use of land and, where appropriate, it provides an integrated approach to the implementation and delivery of these other strategies. 2.37 It is particularly important that the Local Plan relates to Three Rivers ’ Community Strategy (2023 -2028) and any subsequent update , which sets out the local community’s aspirations so that these can be delivered in an effective and joined-up way. 2.38 The Community Strategy was prepared by the Local Strategic Partnership (LSP) to improve quality of life in the district through partnership working. The Local Strategic Partnership and Community Safety Board merged in 2024 to create the Connecting Three Rivers Board, which will have responsibility for preparing future community strategies. 2.39 The themes identified within the Community Strategy focus on areas of local service provision that need most improvement and that can be delivered through partnership working. Four themes are identified including: • Belonging • Safe and Well Communities • Thriving Environment • Stable Economy 2.40 The Local Plan is a key mechanism for delivering on the ground many of the priorities established through the Community Strategy and other council strategies and plans. Relationship with the Corporate Framework (2023-2026) 2.41 It is also important that the Local Plan relates to Three Rivers’ Corporate Framework (2023-2026) and any subsequent update, as the Local Plan is a key driver to delivering its vision and objectives. 2.42 The vision of the Corporate Framework is for Three Rivers to be “a great place to live, work and visit”. 2.43 The Corporate Framework also identifies four objectives: • Provide responsive and responsible local leadership • Expand our position as a great place to do business • Support and enable sustainable communities • Achieve net carbon zero and be climate resilient Relationship with Hertfordshire Growth Board 2.44 It is also important for the Local Plan to align and help deliver larger scale (such as at a county level) strategies. The Hertfordshire Growth Board (HGB), which is made up of the County Council, the 10 district and borough councils, the NHS Hertfordshire & West Essex Integrated Care Board, Homes England, Hertfordshire Futures and the Police and Crime Commissioner, aims to deliver sustainable and positive growth for residents, communities and businesses. 2.45 The vision of the HGB is as follows: • A vibrant and resilient economy that seizes the right opportunities, enabling Hertfordshire’s residents and businesses to succeed • Healthy, inclusive, safe and better -connected communities who thrive, and enjoy Hertfordshire’s quality of life • A place that grows responsibly, and celebrates its heritage, diversity, rural and green landscapes that make Hertfordshire special Summary 2.46 The key issue for the future of Three Rivers will be making provision for new development required to meet local needs whilst protecting the environment and maintaining or improving the quality of life of Three Rivers’ communities. In doing this, following topics of significance need to be addressed: • House prices in Three Rivers are very high and affordability has been worsening. Alongside the need to provide more housing, there is a particular need to provide more affordable housing • It is important to continue to focus new development on previously developed land, but, in general, the supply of previously developed land is falling • The extent of land released from the Green Belt will need to be balanced, taking into account local development needs, whilst safeguarding as much of the Green Belt as possible and still complying with national policy. • There is a high dependency on the car, particularly in rural parts of the district. Therefore, there is a need to enable and promote more sustainable modes of transport to improve travel options, increase access to services and reduce the environmental impacts of travel • There is a need for increased business investment in the area to support existing business and growth and to provide local employment opportunities • There is an ageing population which will lead to differing demands on services and housing. These demands will need to be met whilst ensuring that the district remains attractive and accessible to younger people to support the economic development of the area • While the district as a whole is ranked low in terms of deprivation, there are pockets of inequality and deprivation across the district . Additionally, more rural parts of the district are affected by barriers to housing and access to services • Existing infrastructure requires investment to cope with growth in the district. New development will require an appropriate level of investment in infrastructure or on-site provision to ensure that new and existing communities are able to access the services that they require • The dispersed pattern of settlements across the district affects the provision of shops and services and the vitality and viability of existing centres. These need to be maintained to continue to meet local needs and contribute to the sustainability of settlements • Climate change is a global threat, and it is important that Three Rivers contributes to reducing and mitigating impacts as far as possible • The attractiveness of the district as a place where people want to live and work depends in part on the environment. This is affected by landscape, biodiversity and open spaces (Green and Blue Infrastructure), as well as heritage. It is very important that these are maintained and enhanced to sustain the unique character of the area and its attractiveness and to protect biodiversity and habitats • Levels of crime in the district are relatively low, however, there is a need to tackle fear of crime and antisocial behaviour Overall Levels of Growth 2.47 All growth in the district must maintain or improve the quality of life of Three Rivers’ communities, and future development must secure a balanced provision between homes, jobs and infrastructure that also safeguards and enhances the environment, maintains the Green Belt, secures good services and facilities for all and achieves a sustainable transport system. 2.48 This Local Plan is anticipated to be adopted towards the end of 2026. National policy requires that a Local Plan should plan for a 15-year period following adoption. The new Local Plan period will therefore be 2026 - 2041. 2.49 For the 15-year plan period following adoption of the Local Plan the Government’s Standard Method for calculating housing needs has been used , which is 832 dwellings per annum. The Housing Target for the Local Plan will therefore be 12,480 dwellings over the plan period 2026 - 2041. 2.50 However, it is important to note that there have been a significant number of commitments (unimplemented planning permissions ) together with a windfall allowance, that can be deducted from this figure. The table below shows these deductions in more detail: Net Number of Homes Total Target 12,480 Commitments (unimplemented planning permissions as of 31.12.2025) 1,508 Windfall Allowance 660 Total (commitments & windfall) 2,168 Residual Housing Target: 10,312 2.51 The residual Housing Target is therefore 10,312 dwellings. The council seeks to meet as much of the identified need for housing as possible given the ecological, environmental and policy constraints throughout the district. 2.52 Over the plan period of 2026 -2041, the follow ing will be planned for in addition to housing: • Pitches for gypsies & travellers and plots for travelling showpeople • Employment use • Retail use • Education use • Open Space • Warner Bros. Studios • Utilities and other infrastructure 2.53 We will seek to maximise the delivery of housing and other development within the built-up urban area including through intensification and higher densities of development to make the most efficient use of land and making a